How the 2023 property market looks so far

Paul Jamieson, Head of Sales at TwentyEA, talks market trends in this exclusive article for Moneypenny. TwentyEA has over 15 years experience providing targeted property insight to estate agencies across the UK. 

2022 was an interesting year for the property market. Following the massive boom seen in the second half of 2020 and throughout 2021, by the start of 2022, the shortage of property stock was causing a real problem with demand significantly outstripping supply. Properties were literally selling like hot cakes, until the Kwasi Kwarteng mini budget sent the economy in to meltdown and mortgage rate increases prompted the housing market to start to cool.

There has been much discussion within the media about whether we’re headed for a property market crash, with huge drops in house prices and levels of both supply and demand falling off a cliff. In times like these, knowledge is power, and here at TwentyEA we track market activity in real-time, using the UK’s most accurate and comprehensive property market database, to provide our clients with valuable insight to help them navigate the opportunities ahead.

It is fair to say that the early 2023 data should provide Estate Agents across the UK with cautious optimism, that despite what the scaremongers may have us believe, we are simply seeing a return to a more normal market of 2016-2019 after the shockwaves of the Covid Pandemic in recent years.

To provide some more detailed insight for Moneypenny customers, here we will look at market trends throughout the first two months of the year.

Supply & Demand

Supply, which is measured by the volume of new instructions, has stabilised whereas demand, measured by the volume of SSTC’s, has fallen. Remember though, that this time last year demand was sky high!

Volumes of new instructions in 2023 to-date are broadly the same as 2022 (a 2% increase), however supply is 10% lower than the pre-pandemic years of 2019 and 2020.

Volumes of sales agreed have fallen by 21% in the last year, however demand is actually only 10% lower than pre-pandemic 2019.

What this means in reality, is that there are less buyers than in previous years. One of the reasons for this is down to mortgage affordability and although it presents a challenge, we are finding that good quality, experienced estate agents across the country are rolling up their sleeves and still getting deals done!

Time to Sell (NI – SSTC)

The fall in demand has also affected the average time to sell a property, which, in 2023, is currently 65 days – an increase of 50% year on year.

However, the 65 days it takes to sell a property today is still 10 days faster than 2019 averages, so it is all relative!

Fall Throughs

The volume of sales falling through has reduced by over 5% in 2023 so far compared to the prior year. Whilst this is still 9% higher than they were in pre-pandemic 2019, it’s clear that we’ve not seen large swathes of frightened buyers pulling out of deals, or mortgage offers being revoked, despite what the media may lead us to believe.

Exchanges & Withdrawns

Exchanges in 2023 have fallen by 14% compared to 2022, but the volume of exchanges is pretty similar to pre-pandemic.

Volumes of properties being withdrawn from the market have increased by 55% in the last year, and this looks like a shock until you realise that the withdrawn volumes are in fact very similar to 2019 to 2021.

What does all this mean for Moneypenny Customers?

In summary, my advice to Moneypenny customers is to treat buyers like gold dust! The fact that you are already a Moneypenny customer means that you are probably at an unfair advantage to most agents as you have a 1^st class telephone answering service and live chat system in place ensuring that you don’t miss a single enquiry!

Whilst we are under no illusions that 2023 will be challenging, I am confident that good estate agents will still be able to thrive and succeed in the coming months.

Stay positive and ignore the doom mongerers!